Wednesday, January 31, 2007

War with Iran

I don't know if the Bush regime is really considering invading Iran. I can't imagine how they would come to the conclusion that this was a good thing to do. But you never know.

The regime has bungled virtually every foreign policy move it has made since taking power (remember, they started off right away with that stupid brouhaha about the spy plane that hit the Chinese plane, which was pretty much fumbling the opening kickoff in terms of foreign policy), and they've pretty much screwed the pooch on Iran too, and the only way it can really get worse at this point is if we invade.

Some history.

According to NPR a while ago, Iran cooperated with the US "War an an Abstract Concept Called Terror" after 9-11, in the hopes that such cooperation would lead to closer ties with the US, which the Iranians felt was a bit cool after being included in the infamous "Axis of Evil." The Bushies, naturally, took this as an opportunity to shun Iran, which caused the moderates to get kicked out and allowed our good friend Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the guy who both denies the right of Israel to exist and hosted a conference of Holocaust deniers a couple months ago, to come to power.

So, then, perhaps emboldened by the turmoil in Iraq diverting US attention, or perhaps not unjustifiably worried about the US invading them next, the Iranians re-started their nuclear program. After all, North Korea had just announced they had nuclear (or "nucular") weapons and nothing had happened to them. (I would like to point out here that I predicted, before the invasion of Iraq, that North Korea would go nuclear, if they hadn't already, if we invaded).

So, the Bush regime goes all "diplomatic" all of a sudden, saying up and down that Iran would be dealt with diplomatically, unlike Iraq, despite the fact that Iran is a definite state sponsor of terror and will soon definitely have nuclear weapons whereas neither were true of Iraq. (Which is not to justify invading Iran, but to point out the inconsistency of the regime's foreign policy). But, and I don't think this has been made widely known in the mainstream media, the regime has consistently refused to meet with Iran unless Iran first suspends its nuclear program.

Let's think about that for a moment. Why do we want to meet with Iran? To get them to stop their nuclear program. What do we make a precondition of meeting with Iran? Them stopping their nuclear program. Do you see a problem here? That's like telling your neighbor, whose tree is growing into your yard, that you won't meet with him to discuss the tree problem unless he first cuts the tree down. What the fuck is there to meet about then? Besides, the Iranians aren't completely stupid. The last time they cooperated with the US, the US slapped them in the face. Obviously, they aren't going to give the US what it wants without any assurances of getting what it wants, which is something you would talk about during the diplomatic negotiations! Why in the hell would they trust that relations between the US and Iran are going to improve if they do this thing, since they got jilted last time?

It's like Bush said, "Fool me once... you can't get fooled again." Or, at least in Iran's case, they aren't going to get fooled again.

So, what are your options if a country is developing nuclear weapons, messing around helping insurgents in a country you're trying to stabilize, and you've decided they have to give in on everything you want to negotiate with them about as a precondition of meeting with them? Well, I guess you'd pretty much have to invade them.

Which, boy, would be a great move. An overextended, depleted military occupying yet another hostile nation? We've already lost in Iraq, we're starting to lose in Afghanistan, let's take on another, identical challenge? That'll work out great. Oh, well, it will work out great in one way, at least for the Bush regime: It will distract from the debacles already ongoing. And, of course, we'll military crush Iran, because we can still do that, and Bush can say, "Mission Accomplished!", but that will just be the prelude to another intractable insurgency.

To say nothing of the fact that many Iranian, especially Iranian youth, actually have positive views of the US and would also like closer ties with the West, but are stuck under extremist rule. Because, let me tell you, they'll stop having good feelings toward the US the first time they see their father, mother, brother, sister, or friend dying from a US bomb. That'll be great.

I don't know if the Bush regime intends to invade Iran or not. But they're going to continue backing themselves into a corner as long as they keep up this ridiculous precondition bullshit and refuse to negotiate with them. Invading them will just make a bad situation worse.


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